Published on by WyseFIFA 7 Comments Updated on
After a holiday break, the Ones to Watch (OTW) analysis returns. Right now, the Team of the Year (TOTY) promotion is revving up, and although all eyes are focused on trying to pull the best items in the game, it could be time for shrewd investors to turn their eyes to these dynamic items. The FUT market has taken a big hit as the frenzy of packs and panic has caused supply to overtake demand, thereby dropping prices.
The market slide has been expected for a while considering it follows the same trend from the past few FIFA installments; however, with prices so low it’s time to look for opportunity: Enter the Ones to Watch market. With most FIFA players focused on the current TOTY hype, remember that the next big promo potentially comes in early February with a second batch of OTW items. Looking at the OTW players, there are some interesting trends developing, so lets delve deeper to help utilize these items to amass your FUT fortune.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let me know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graphs above are concise overviews of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Although the Weekly Roundup graphic shows a mix of green and red its important to note that the players in the red have fallen harder in terms of overall price change. At the moment, it is tricky for me to recommend any “expensive” OTW item as a good pickup due to the fact that in a couple weeks’ time we should get a whole new supply of these items; however, if you’re a risk-taker the likes Radja Nainggolan, Alisson Becker and Riyahd Mahrez all have positive upside based on their High/Low spread.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Usually, I use this section to talk about the benefits of trying to time a highly volatile OTW player for solid profit, but with the overall market conditions unstable I am going to change my tune. Volatility in an uncertain market can lead to some iffy decisions but players like Richarilson, Naby Keita and Jorginho look good for conservatives here.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Some very interesting figures in this portion of the graphic with most players staying in a narrow lane. Joao Cancelo and Felipe Anderson present interesting outliers here. As two very meta items, picking them during lightning rounds (or 4-8pm UK) during the week could be a quality decision if you’re okay with holding for a week or two.
Unfortunately, most leagues are on their winter break so nothing here this week. Stay tuned though.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser.
Big Winner - Discard OTW Items
I have been talking a lot about the OTW items who have declined recently, but looking at the Rundown graphic it is time to address those green figures. If one takes a closer look many of the players on the rise are the “discard” level OTW players, which is an interesting trend that needs to be addressed.
In this article I have mentioned the possible Winter OTW promotion that usually arrives the first weekend of February and provides a new batch of OTW items and SBCs where you can also pull Summer OTW items. It’s an extremely fun time, but over the past few years has also yielded tremendous profit as OTW items sky rocket considering they are required for the SBCs.
With that in mind, it is apparent people are already banking on these lower tier OTWs as investments causing their increase even during an overall market crash. Be weary of buying other players’ investments, and my recommendation would be to sell the lower rated OTWs into the hype and look elsewhere in the index for opportunity.
Big Loser - Gonzalo Higuain (AC Milan)
Many European leagues have taken their winter breaks recently, and without the prospect of fixtures many higher rated OTW items fell. Other reasons for declined were mentioned above, yet its time to pick the player who suffered the most this past week: Gonzalo Higuain. With a whopping -28.62% decline the AC Milan front man is in a precarious situation.
The Argentine forward lit up the Serie A while at Juventus, yet this year he has struggled to find his footing. A player of his caliber should rebound soon, and although I like his upside in the second half of the campaign Higuain illustrates perfectly the OTW player who I would wait until a likely Winter OTW promo to pick up. The fact that he is not meta (that pace) means that his value will slide and hopefully bottom out the first weekend of February. After that let the man go off.
Recap & Outlook
One of the most exciting promotion of the year is upon us, and with it comes the anticipated TOTY market drop. With prices as low as they are there is plenty of opportunity across the board; however, a particular area to pay attention to is the OTW sector. Naturally, this TOTY hype has overshadowed the fact that the OTW promo is potentially a few weeks away, and with prices dropping to depth unseen it could be very profitable to strike before the masses turn their attention to the future.
With so much talk of the potential winter OTW promo, we’d love to hear which January transfer you hope gets a dynamic item. As a Fiorentina supporter, I'm personally pulling for the sweat god Luis Muriel.