FIFA 19 Ones To Watch Market Update, 4 December

Market Overview

December has arrived, and with the holiday season upon us the FUT Market has started to bustle with activity. Although we are seeing more items being listed on the market, most players either stayed stable or rose slightly (unless they were a SBC requirement expiring such as Bundesliga Informs). This trend has affected common Weekend League targets, but with promos like FUTMAS and possibly Champions League/Europa League Team of the Group Stage (TOTGS) on the horizon is the market poised for a dip?

Now I said that “most” items held stable or had modest increases; however, the Ones to Watch (OTW) sector exploded. With the exception of two players, OTW items all had positive weekly returns. The sector has been driven up considerably, and some credit may be due to the packed fixture list of December, as well as whispers of the OTW SBC in February. But is now really the time to be buying?

Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let me know.

Weekly Returns & Stats

The graphs above are concise overviews of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.

Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.

-- Quick take: Currently, most of the OTW items are close, if not at, their high price. When prices are as high as this it means tred lightly, and if you want safer bets make sure to be looking at players in big leagues with good game time like Jorginho and Sokratis.

Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.

-- Quick take: Looking at the weekly breakdown, volatility figures are higher than previous weeks and interestingly these price swings have mainly trended upwards. Yet, what goes up most come down, so it might be time to take the profit on the likes of Joao Cancelo, Alisson Bekker and Fred.

Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.

-- Quick take: Very tame figure this week in the beta department. Quite a few negative figures too, but chalk that up to the incredible rise of some players this week. For the betas close to zero expect them to follow the general markets trend up or down, while the likes of Naby Keita might hold their value better with their side's amount of games this month.

TOTW Shout

Not much to see here this week. Keep in mind UCL & Europa League TOTGS is coming up soon.

In-depth daily analysis

For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser.

Big Winner - OTW Market

When 21 out of 23 players have positive weekly returns, and 17 of those 21 are greater than 10%, it is hard to choose a single player as this week’s biggest winner. So, the award goes to the sector as a whole.

Now, to bring us back to reality this sudden spike was not foreseen, but in the short future the fortunes of most items will most likely be reversed. I recommend taking profit while you have it and getting back in on investments closer to Christmas and Team of the Year.

Big Loser - Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)

Who would’ve thought that a GOAT would make this list? Well, after missing out on the Ballon d’Or Cristiano Ronaldo can add this biggest loser award to his disappointing week.

Yet even with his bleak week, all hope is not lost here. Ronaldo has started to find his footing in the Serie A, and as an elite FUT player he has a high price floor (due to popularity and demand). So, that gives me a positive outlook on the trajectory of CR7.

Recap & Outlook

While the general FUT Market stayed relatively stable, the Ones to Watch sector exploded for massive returns across the board. Over the next week or two, I could see a slight correction; however, where people should really worry is the impending FUTMAS and Team of the Year promotions. In sum, take the profit where you can.

Finally, make sure to be doing your research on if any OTW items are in line for Team of The Group Stage upgrades as next week will be too late to invest.

Data

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