Published on by WyseFIFA 16 Comments
After a few weeks to let their prices settle, my weekly Ones to Watch (or simply "OTW") analysis is back. For those new to these pieces, I record the price data of every OTW player twice a day over the course of a week. Then I run a series of analytical tests that help to measure their relationship with the overall OTW market (Beta), as well as a measure of how their price fluctuates (Volatility). Hopefully, both of those metrics help to provide valuable insight into how to invest or trade wysely with these dynamic items.
With that quick refresher we can now move onto FUT Market talk. The Ultimate Scream Promo is in full swing, and before the release of the latest Squad Builder Challenges the market was stagnant. Player prices’ have held stable while many 82-86 rated items received a slight boost with the Koke SBC. Unless we receive some crazy lightning rounds this week expect prices to hold, with OTW items following the general market trend.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let me know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graphs above are concise overviews of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Most OTW players have settled closer to their lows at the moment; however, that helps investors establish a base of where an item’s price may rebound if they receive some hype. Continuing with that trend, it could be profitable to look for players that have sizable high/low spreads and receive quality minutes on the pitch, like Jorginho, Felipe Anderson and Quincy Promes.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: A general note, high volatility is great for traders looking to buy low and sell high. Elite tier players like Gonzalo Higuain, Radja Nainggolan and Cristiano Ronaldo have the high prices to make this possible; however, there is a lot more risk assumed in trading them too. So, if you’d prefer to trade a lot of items it might be better to stick to less expensive players like Richarilson or Sokratis where you can feel more confident in knowing you got a great deal.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Interestingly, most OTW item’s beta stayed close to zero affirming the early assertion that OTW player price have been following the FUT market trends. That being said, there were a couple anomalies this week with the likes of Mariano Diaz and Fyodor Smolov. Both of the preceding items reflect OTW players who have almost hit their lowest, so with only one way to move that might skew their beta.
Two of the bigger names in the Ones to Watch pool put in quality performances, but the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Leon Goretzka seem to be just missing out based on the community’s TOTW predictions.
Ronaldo grabbed a brace in Juventus’s triumph over Empoli, while Goretzka netted the opener in Bayern’s 2-1 win. The latter had to be subbed off with a slight knock, but due to some other stellar performances around the football world both players look to be on the fringe of TOTW 7.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser.
Big Winner - Riyad Mahrez (Manchester City)
Last year these sections tended to get a little long-winded, so I am going to try my best to keep them concise this year. During a week with only a handful of positive weekly returns, Riyad Mahrez was the logical choice.
It was nice for Mahrez to receive a TOTW nod in the first week of this analysis because it allows me to explore the trend of what happens when OTW items receive an upgrade. A modest weekly return of 14.29% is slightly misleading considering his price is on the decline. Just like last year, OTW items that receive early upgrades are best to be sell into the hype or shortly after release. Once the hype wears off, items receive sharp price drops alongside the informs.
Big Loser - OTW Market
Last week Radja Nainggolan would have been the biggest loser due to a pretty serious injury; however, this week it was a tight race between Alisson Bekker and Thomas Lemar. With a negative 21.76% weekly return Lemar edged out his competition.
Although the ex-Monaco man has experienced a sharp decline, it is too early to abandon hope. It was good to highlight Thomas Lemar as the first biggest loser because sometimes these items have the best value. Buy low is the moto, and a player like Lemar who gets quality minutes for a side that is in multiple competitions means there is still a lot of value here.
Recap & outlook
It feels good to get back into the swing of things with the Ones to Watch market. This week’s biggest takeaway is to remember that most OTW players’ prices will follow the general market trend and expect the market to stay relatively stable until we receive more repeatable SBCs or lightning rounds.
Next week we will continue discussing the OTW market trends, and I hope to get into more details about successful methods to utilize these items to help amass your FUT fortune.
Please feel free to share any questions about the FUT Market or OTW items below. Also, let me hear your prediction for the OTW player who will receive the most upgrades this FIFA?