Published on by FutEconomist 28 Comments
Seasoned traders and investors will know that the early release of the web app is one of the best opportunities to make coins all year. Player prices constantly shift as market prices adjust to huge influxes of items and coins. These conditions create the perfect opportunity to earn a war chest of coins so that you can start building your competitive FUT Champs squads and get a leg up on the competition.
Release dates, new features, and account setup
Before we dive in, let's start with the basics: The official release date of the web app is set for September 21st with the companion app launching shortly after on the 22nd. EA confirmed these dates in an article on their website. Of note here is that the official EA Access date is also on the 21st. However, it is likely that players will be able to play as soon as the 20th. This will shake things up significantly for Xbox users. We'll get more into that later.
EA have also made a much requested improvement to the web app this year. They announced during their FUT Live event that the desktop web app will now have the ability to complete SBCs! Our fingers are crossed hoping that the UI is more streamlined the clunky experience on the companion app.
Finally, you'll want to make sure that your account is ready to go. Be sure to check out EA's article on how to make sure everything is in line.
How to get started
Once you've logged into the web app, if you are a returning FUT player, you'll have a number of loyalty packs waiting for you. The value of these packs will vary with how long you have been a FUT member. Long term players will receive better packs. Do your favorite good luck ritual and open those packs!
Now that you have a fair number of players and consumables in your club, it's time to start thinking about what you should sell and what to keep. As a general rule, you'll want to sell the majority of what you pack. That includes, balls, kits, stadiums, contracts, bronze keepers, and everything in between. We are looking to scrap together coins whatever way possible. As the old saying goes, "You need money to make money."
However, if a item is "investment grade" you'll want to hold onto them. These are items that we believe people will mistakenly undervalued at the start and, therefore, have the potential to rise. We'll cover what types of items those are in a later section, but if you have any specific questions that you want to run by us, feel free to ask us on Twitter.
Now that you have some coins to play with, it's time to layout a few strategies to help you amass your FUT fortune:
Let's first go over some trading strategies. Trading strategies take advantage of short term inefficiencies in the market while the prices of players and consumables settle. A combination of low patience and players that might not know any better often result in players and consumables popping up on the transfer market listed below their value. And that's where we come in…
Non-Rare Gold Method
Great for new FUT traders, or players who don't have much time. This strategy relies on the technique of mass bidding on "low" value gold items, which one then sells at higher Buy Nows. Not much risk, but steady profits make this an ideal starting option.
How it works: Set your Transfer Market filters to Gold Quality with a max price of 400 to 450. Place bids on items that have desirable stats (i.e high pace, dribbling, etc.) or play in big leagues (Premier League, La Liga, 'Calcio A', etc.). You may not win all your bids, but you will undoubtable score some sweet deals. Relist your items for a profit, but make sure to keep their Buy Now at a competitive price. Rinse and repeat.
Silver Card Method
The Silver Card trading method uses many of the same mass bidding principles as the NR Gold method; however, a FUT trader can take it to the next level by targeting specific players. This strategy is recommended for traders with at least a basic knowledge of the market, as well as have a decent supply of patience. Although there is a slight level of risk, and it can take time to find deals, this method allows traders greater flexibility with a higher possibility of scoring some major profit.
How it works:
Option 1 - Set your Transfer Market filters to Silver Quality with a max price of 300 to 350. Place bids on items that have desirable stats, or play in big leagues. Remember, you may not win all your bids. Relist your items for a profit, but make sure to keep their Buy Now competitive. Rinse and repeat.
Option 2 - Targeting specific items may require some preliminary research, or it can be picked up by identifying trends of undervalued players from Option 1. The point is to find players with desirable stats, or in big leagues that are constantly listed at low starting prices. Most deals will be picked up through Open Bids, yet be on the lookout for the rare Buy Now opportunity.
59th Minute Method
When the game first drops, there will be plenty of new and impatient players who whimsically list their extremely valuable players. This presents the perfect target for all you item snipers. You'll have to be in the right place at the right time, but the profit from this strategy can be limitless.
How it works: Focus on players high value leagues (Premier League, La Liga, 'Calcio A', etc…). Develop specific price filters by researching the player's current market price. The strategy will work best when used at popular times for packs, such as right after school (3-6 p.m.) in the UK and North America. Bonus points for creating filters that include multiple players in the same search!
Bronze Pack Method (aka BPM)
The infamous 'BPM'. This strategy might be best used if you already have a sizable coin total. There is a lot of risk in opening bronze packs at the start of FIFA 18, yet the endorphins of opening packs combined with the prospective reward make this an attractive strategy.
How it works: Open 400 coin Bronze packs. For more stable returns, you'll want to be able to open about 5-10 at a time (can be limited by transfer list size at beginning of FUT). List every item for sale! It only takes a few items to sell to break even; however, be prepared to list items multiple times. Often items need to be listed a few times, so patience is required.
Tip: A substantial boost to the method's effectiveness comes if there is a SBC requiring bronze players. With the potential for an early league SBC, this could be something to keep an eye on.
For those hip side-stream traders, there are two other areas of the market to exploit. Often, traders get caught up in the potential glory of flipping player items for massive profits and forget about how effective consumable trading with club items and consumables can be!
Rare Kit & Badges - With a keen fashion sense, scour the market for kits and badges that catch the eye. If you don't trust your fashion instincts you may be better served heading over to the kit and badge section of Futhead and sorting by likes to see which badges, kits, and even stadiums are the most popular. Once again, you can employ mass bidding techniques once you get an idea for how much a certain item has the potential to go for.
Rare Consumable Flipping - With no games being played when the Web App first drops, many players disregard consumables. There are plenty of ripe deals on Position Modifiers, Chemistry Styles and Squad Fitness, but we'll delve deeper into this in our next section.
While trading strategies take advantage of short term inefficiencies, investing strategies take advantage of medium to long term price changes that hopefully provide larger profit margins when it comes time to sell.
Behind every investing strategy, there needs to be a good thesis and every good thesis starts with an understanding of market conditions. With that in mind, before we dive into the strategies, let's go over a number of market conditions that will likely play out at the start of FUT 18.
When developing a FUT investing thesis, there are three main factors you'll need to consider: the supply of items, the demand for items, and the supply of coins. These three factors work together to help determine market prices.
With this in mind, the early stages of the FUT market can be broken down into three broad stages.
- Early Web App Start - During this period, the only way to access the FUT market is through the web app. There are no games played and no one can load up FIFA points. This means that the supply of items is low, essentially limited to the items packed in loyalty packs and daily login bonuses. In addition, the supply of coins is low, and the demand for cheap, starter tier items is at an all time high.
Xbox players should note that they are essentially skipping this stage this year because EA Access is set to drop at the same time as the web app (possibly before).
EA Access/Pre-Order Access - When players finally get their hands on the console version of the game, things really start to get interesting. The major shift here is that players can load up FIFA points. This leads to a huge influx in items, both upper and lower tier. As far as demand goes, most of the time, the demand for high level items actually outweighs supply as big spenders tend to quickly amass a small fortune from FIFA points and funnel that demand to the high end players. These FIFA point spenders tend to sell everything they pack in the pursuit of these small fortunes, putting downward pressure on the prices of lower/mid tier players.
Worldwide Launch - The market undergoes yet another shift when the game officially launches worldwide. The number of new, casual players eclipses the existing player base and their loyalty packs and whatever money they put into FIFA points works to push out huge volumes of items at all levels. Since most of these players are causal, their demand is skewed towards the lower tier players. This means that the mid-upper tier players tend to take a temporary hit (before rebounding in October, but we'll save that for another post), and lower tier, OP players bump up significantly.
Now that we have the lay of the land, so to speak, let's lay out some methods you can follow. Remember that before investing in any of these methods, it's important to have a plan for when you are going to buy and at what price point. The same goes for selling. Staying disciplined and keeping panic buying/selling at a minimum will lead to long term success.
OTW Candidate Investing
The Method: One of the most lucrative methods last year was investing in the regular golds items of OTW candidates before their gold items went out of packs while their OTW version was in packs during the first week of the game.
Thesis: This method could prove effective again this year. When the regular gold items goes out of packs, the supply of that item is put under pressure. The price of the OTW item will be price prohibitive for most, meaning their only option will be to buy a more expensive regular gold item. This works particularly well for players that are classed as OP. You can prepare your list of potential investments by checking out our OTW predictions.
TOTW 2 Candidates
The Method: Similar to the OTW candidate investing strategy, this method consists of investing in the regular gold items of TOTW 2 candidates.
Thesis: This essentially follows the same logic as the OTW investing method. When the gold item is replaced by the inform item in packs, the supply is pinched and prices usually rise.
TOTW 1 and 2 Investing
The Method: A tried and true method, investing in potential high demand TOTW 1 and 2 items has usually been a safe bet every FIFA. A note of caution, however. This method is extremely popular and may fall victim to overinvesting.
Thesis: In the beginning of the game, the supply of coins is spread thin, but the supply of high end packed IFs tends to be on the high side. This means that these early TOTW players can go for relatively reasonable prices with the potential to rise dramatically over time.
The Method: This method consists of buying valuable consumables for cheap while they are in low demand before the full release of the game, and holding them until the console versions drop. Examples of good consumables include rare squad fitnesses, injury items, and popular position change items.
Thesis: When people open their loyalty packs or FIFA point funded packs they are usually more focused on building their teams and would prefer to sell their consumables to get all the coins they can. This means that the supply is very high while demand is relatively low (since no one is playing any games). This leads to lower that normal prices that have the potential to rise dramatically when the full game drops. Prices can raise even higher when the first weekend league rolls around.
Rare Kits and Badges
The Method: Investing in highly sought after rare kits and badges can be a great and foolproof way to make a ton of coins. The key here is being patient when trying to sell. Sometimes relisting will be frustrating but eventually you will find the right buyer.
Thesis: Similar to consumable investing, when people are first opening their loyalty packs they don't necessarily consider how valuable rare kits and badges can be. They are usually more concerned about getting enough coins to scrape together a starter team. This means that hoarding rare or desirable kits and badges can yield great returns when sold at times when people first hop onto the console version of the game and they have earned a bit more spending money. A good way to identify the highly sought after kits and badges is by sorting for likes on FutHead's kits and badges page.
OP Silver and Gold Players
The Method: The method is probably the most obvious, but is often one of the toughest to pull off. Every year, there are a number of low rated players that are incredibly good in the game for whatever reason. If you can identify these players early and pick them up before they get hyped up, you'll be in the money. If you happen to catch a big influencer (YouTubers, Twitch streamers, etc.) raving about a certain player early, and you can beat the rest of the crowd to the market and pick them up, you should see solid returns.
Thesis: This method works as well as it does because the FIFA community is prone to hyping the up the "OP-ness" of certain players. This drives up demand and with it, their price.
Squad Building Challenges
The Method: There are a number of SBCs that could be on the way early in FIFA 18. Potential examples include the August and September POTMs and the first couple league SBCs. Be of the lookout for future guides from us as it relates to those potential SBCs.
Thesis: SBC requirements often require a specific group of players. Depending on the reward for the SBC, this can lead to significant jumps in price as pressure is put on the existing supply.
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