With Team of the Season about halfway done, and most European domestic leagues are wrapping up, we have come to an important crossroads in FUT. The general FUT market is a roller coaster of ups and downs depending on lightning rounds, and with World Cup mode approaching, prices are headed for a cliff.
Amidst all the hype, and subsequent market crash, the Ones to Watch sector is nearing the end of its relevance. After domestic seasons end, these dynamic items will NOT be upgraded (unlike their Path to Glory counterparts). With their value-add gone, these items become glorified informs meaning avoid paying more than necessary on these items going forward.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graphs above are concise overviews of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Prices for most lower rated special items are through the floor at the moment, so there could still be profit during a price correction. The best way to do that is to look for desirable players close to discard with rather large high/low spreads at the moment. Looking at the graphs above, the likes of Michy Batshuayi, Alvaro Morata and Corentin Tolisso might have room to rebound.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: A week that saw some polarizing figures, Volatility is good because it means you can get in low and sell high, but that opportunity is being muddled at the moment due to the overarching price decline of most OTW items. So, in this section it might be best to stay away from items like Serge Aurier, Philippe Coutinho and Virgil Van Dijk.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: This week, beta figures are beginning to even out across the OTW sector. With betas getting closer to zero it means players’ prices should be stabilizing, and it makes sense because many are doing so at their discard price. If you can be patient and snag a couple on open bid, Gerard Deulofeu, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Lucas seem to be at their low (although do not expect a drastic rebound).
A trio of pacey OTW wingers have blessed the current Team of the Week. Starting off, Douglas Costa continues racking up the upgrades as the season draws to a close, while Bertrand Traore also capped off quite the season in style (shame about the weak foot). Last, but certainly not least, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang put in quite the shift over the weekend earning him an even faster item. Hate to see that in the Weekend League
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner - Ederson (Manchester City)
A couple Team of the Week shouts had sizable weekly returns, but we covered them above. This week the real big winner was in an item that had received tremendous amounts of TOTS hype, but ultimately missed the final inclusion: Ederson Moraes.
The Brazilian shot stopper has been brilliant all season, and most likely should have made it; however, EA figured you could only have so many Manchester City players. Focusing on his price jump, Ederson presents an interesting trend that traders can utilize during Bundesliga and Calcio A TOTS.
The keeper’s price skyrocketed because players were panic selling him in the lead up to the BPL announcement figuring he would have a beefed up card, yet when he missed out players immediately went back to snag the highest rated version. This increased demand drove up his price and enlightened us to a tidy trend.
Now, going forward if a player with significant TOTS hype misses out it won’t hurt to snag a couple as quick as possible to flip in the preceding days. It can be high risk/high reward, so be warned.
Big Loser - OTW Market
Last week we had the OTW sector as a whole as our biggest losers, and honestly I did not think it could have gotten much worse for them. Well, it definitely did, and with some staggering price drops the OTW setor as a whole makes this section for the second week running.
I mentioned last week that there is always a silver lining when it comes to price drops as players become more affordable. I still stand by that, but the fact OTW items are losing their dynamic upgrade potential means they are losing the most important part of their value. Players secretly love guessing who can be the next Mohamed Salah when it comes to OTW upgrades, but with that luster gone (other than possibly one more bump for Salah himself), make sure to not be paying a premium on these items going forward.
Recap & outlook
The FUT market has continued its long slide, and with Team of the Season promos only halfway through expect that trend to continue. Where players should really be worried though is with the World Cup mode on May 29th considering when that drops, and players jump ship to that mode, items’ prices will plummet. Try to be sell your most expensive items by then, and that is especially true for the OTW sector.
Again, it has been a pleasure to bring weekly analysis to the OTW sector, but it is time to hang up the boots until domestic seasons resume. Enjoy the World Cup and transfer window, because we are all eagerly awaiting a fresh batch of OTW items in FIFA 19.