Over the course of the week, the FUT market has continued to hold relatively stable in spite of uncertainty around big promotions. It seems EA are going to hold off on Team of the Knockout stage until after FUT Swap. Regardless, the market is hanging on threads before a crash as Team of the Season approaches, so if you are looking at profit on your cards, now might be the time to take it.
In terms of the Ones to Watch market, players' prices continue to hold steady and many rose over the week. We love to see this because it speaks to the items’ value going forward, but make sure to note that once domestic seasons end these cards become much less useful; therefore, their prices crash. With a month left there is definitely still profit to be made, but keep reading to see how to maximize your coins in the coming weeks.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graphs above are concise overviews of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: With domestic seasons winding down, its time to start focusing on low price, high hype potential individuals who get solid game time. So, looking at some high/low spread players like Aymeric Laporte, Davinson Sanchez and Theo Walcott fit the bill.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Some pretty high volatility figures this week, and it mirrors the Path to Glory sector that we touched on earlier this week. The high figures here provide insight into the fact that the market is in a very uncertain state. That being said, if you like riding risk high volatility player like Michy Batshuayi, Serge Aurier and Kylian Mbappe look like high risk/high reward options.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Another week of mixed figures here, but that speaks to some players being more risky than others. Yet, sticking to our high hype potential individuals, players like Gylfi Sigurdsson, Diego Costa and Leonardo Bonucci have betas point to big price jumps if they can bag a goal.
TOTW Shout No concrete Team of the Week shouts this week, but that being said there are some Team of the Knockout Stage performances that deserve our consideration. Liverpool soared through their UCL ties against Manchester City, and both Virgil Van Dijk and Mohamed Salah could be in line to make the TOTKS side.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner - Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool)
Milot Rashica sports a high weekly return, but it's important to note that since his price is low any slight increase looks big in terms of percents. Also, with not too much hype this week, we want to cover a player mentioned above more in-depth. So, Virgil Van Dijk is this week's biggest winner.
The Liverpool defender had a quality week in terms of price increase, but we want to stress our recommendation based on his outlook. As OTW players reach the end of their domestic season it is important to take profit whenever you can get it. Coins will be extremely valuable around TOTS considering we are primed for a market crash. This will give you substantial buying power, so our advice is to sell Van Dijk into the hype and look to other OP options around TOTS.
Big Loser - Leonardo Bonucci (AC Milan)
We don’t usually choose a biggest loser from players we’ve mentioned above; however, even after our 23rd article there’s still room for first time occurrences. That being said, our biggest loser this week is Leonardo Bonucci, yet is he truly a big loser?
With a -13.7% return Bonucci had a week to forget; however, his volatility and beta are middling figures. That combination of stars point to the fact that his card should be at its bottom. Going forward don’t expect his price to drop much, so if you’re a Milan fan it might be a good look to pick up a few on open bid. Be patient to get the best price.
The ex-Juventus CB presents an interesting case that a lot of high rated OTW items are facing at the moment. Right now there are still a few chances to get an upgrade, but in the next couple of weeks, if no opportunity has presented itself these items will begin to plummet. That means put profit to the front of your mind, and don’t hold out for a few extra coins.
Recap & outlook
The FUT market continues to remain in its limbo of steady prices, but underlying players are uncertain. The market is poised for a big drop with the release of the next big pack promo, so it is time to considerer going liquid for Team of the Season. You’ll have to be patient, but you can buy your players back then. Ones to Watch items are nearing their terminal point in FU, yet sticking to low price high hype potential players can still make you serious coin. Profit is now a priority, and here are a couple final quick takes:
-- OTW traders: Prices are all over the place, but get in low on open bid . .
-- OTW investors: It's getting pretty late in the game, but stick to the players in the 18-30k range as your best bets.
OTW Neymar making waves at FUT Champs Manchester, any other OTW items you’d love to see on the competitive stage?