What a week for Path to Glory items! After some late rumors emerged about a second batch of these dynamic items, EA delivered with a stacked 23 man lineup. To go along with the new items, EA released a set of Path to Glory SBCs that mirrored the Ones to Watch promo in early February. These new SBCs caused the market to go crazy, with high-rated items (icons & informs) dropping significantly, while 82-84s rose sharply due to SBC requirements.
Taking a closer look at the hype driver of the FUT market, the “Autumn” PTG items’ returns look unrealistic. More than three-fourths of the items have above a 100% weekly return, but that is what FUT market hype can do. Hopefully you cashed in on your investments, but if you’re still holding you are playing with fire. Make sure to sell as these items will plummet once the PTG SBCs are done!
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the PTG market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: With the statistics so skewed this week, looking at the high/low spread can show you where cards will fall back to.If next week they fall below their lows it could be profitable to pick them up and flip them as people might panic too hard.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the PTG player’s item.
-- Quick take: Another section where the numbers are off the charts. Chalk this up to the hype of course; however, watch for the players with higher volatility like Dimitri Payet, Lars Stindl and Sandro Wagner to fall the hardest.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Make it three for three on sections that are abnormal this week. Similar to volatility, look to players like Emil Forsberg, Stephan El Shaarawy and Marquinhos, who all sport high betas, to drop significantly in the week to come.
TOTW & Upgrade Shout
Amidst all the PTG promotion hype, a couple marquee players put in quality performances that have them looking good for the upcoming TOTW. Marcus Rashford netted a brace in their huge fixture over the weekend, while Rodrigo also found the back of the net twice.
Both players would be highly sought after cough pace cough, but selling into the hype is not a bad option (especially for Rodrigo).
Big Winner - 82-84 rated items & Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Looking at the Weekly Statistic it’s clear that any PTG item rated 82-84 saw insane price increases. It was great for investors, but seriously remember these 82-84 items will plummet in the coming weeks.
With that in mind, we had to choose another big winner, and Gabriel Jesus emerged as our hero. The Brazilian had a solid week of returns on his own, and that may be due to some external factors. After returning from injury, Jesus grabbed a goal in their UEFA Champions League tie last week which is a promising sign. But, what really kicked up his hype was the unfortunate news that Aguero will be sidelined for two weeks. Without competition for the starting forward spot Jesus has a tremendous opportunity to shine in one of the best attacking sides in the Premier League.
A lot of things seem to be lining up for Jesus, and his hype potential is enormous. Another inform and this card would be game breaking, so watch this space.
Big Loser - Raphael Varane (Real Madrid)
With only three PTG players having negative weekly returns, the biggest loser pool was limited. So, it didn’t take us long to stumble upon Raphael Varane as our biggest loser; however, there could be a major silver lining here.
With the domestic seasons ending it's important to note that dynamic players will start losing value as the lower the number of fixtures the less chances for an upgrade. It should be noted that PTG items will get upgraded if they pick up informs/upgrades in the summer; however, the risk is still to high for prices to hold at there current levels. So where is Varane’s silver lining?
With Real Madrid still active in a variety of competitions, the Frenchman looks to be one of the better picks from the “Autumn” PTG items. He gets quality minutes at the back, plus he has high hype potential. If he can pick up an inform or MOTM his stats would be incredible and serve as a tidy FUT Champs player. This means there is a high reward to the high risk you take on his item.
The PTG market finally got the hype it deserves! Make sure you have cashed in completely as these players prices will plummet when the SBCs are gone! Don’t get greedy, and take the profit now as there are better investment opportunities on the horizon. Look out for the new batch of PTG items to join the analysis next week, but in the meantime revel in the profit.
We finally got the answer to our question of when PTG items would be needed; however, our new question is which PTG player are you looking forward to using the most? As always, lookout for some more dynamic item analysis in our Ones to Watch market update later in the week.