As the Ratings Refresh promotion came to an end, the general FUT market continued on its usual trend when in between big content events. The trend we’ve seen is a dip post-Weekend League, leading to a stable rise from Monday to Thursday as people ramp up for competitive play. We thought it was about time we covered that trend, but the release of sPOTM Mohamed Salah, and ton of hype around a new batch of dynamic player items has the market in an interesting position. Time will tell, but the market is poised for some big swings in a busy March.
Now, turning our attention to a sector of the FUT market that everyone loves, Ones to Watch items had a really solid week on the back of a couple big Team of the Week shouts. An even bigger brightspot was the fact that some Winter OTW players finally received positive weekly returns, while others seem to be stabilizing out. This next month will be huge for these items, so keep reading to help you gain some knowledge on how to amass your FUT fortune.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Coming at you hot with the players who are showing the best hype potential due to their high/low spread, it seems like Nicolas Tagliafico, Alexis Sanchez and James Rodriguez fit the bill here. Plenty of options to choose from, but when you’re looking to make a high upside pick, look at players with large high/low ranges who just experienced a negative weekly return; price might be cheap.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Neymar takes the cake with his figures this week, which helps to explain his 300k lose in value due to his unfortunate injury, and subsequent surgery. Hope he recovers quickly, but some more abnormal figures that stand out are Virgil Van Dijk and Federico Bernardeschi. Both players have been experiencing large daily price swings, so if you can time it right enjoy the coins
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Summer OTW items are surprisingly tame this week, which speaks to them being mostly stable at the moment. However, their Winter counterparts seemingly have much more sensitive figures. The likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aymeric Laporte and Khouma Babacar all seemed to be poised to have big price swings depending on the market’s direction.
TOTW Shout A week with two main inform shouts saw Ederson Moraes receive a TOTW nod, while Corentin Tolisso was snuffed after scoring a screamer. Luckily, a couple more months of football will hopefully see this section staying filled out.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner - Ederson Moraes (Manchester City)
Touched on briefly above, the Man City shot stopper had a quality week which saw him earn a second inform. At 87 overall, this item is a beast between the stick, and to top it off Ederson finds himself as this week's biggest winner.
Some crazy weekly stats, the Brazilian boosted a 70.6% weekly return with a huge volatility (~20,000) as hype carried his price up all week. As usual though, selling OTW items into the hype is the way to go! After his TOTW inclusion Ederson’s price has slowly receded alongside the new inform, so if you held (besides to play with) you missed out on a few coins.
Make sure to keep that trend in mind going forward, because with domestic seasons winding down, and Team of the Season approaching, it’s time to maximize those coins.
Big Loser - Keita Balde Diao (AS Monaco)
Choosing the player to represent this category wasn't as difficult as the past few weeks; however, it still wasn't easy. This week we came to the consensus that after a week of rough returns, Keita Balde Diao was our biggest loser.
The speedy attacker has struggled with consistent game time, and when he has features just seems to miss out on all the things that would hype him up in FUT. Interestingly, his volatility and beta are both rather low, which demonstrates he might be reaching his risk free point. His blistering pace and relatively high rating should keep his price around 20k going forward, so if you can swoop in there is definitely hype potential here!
Keep your eyes on Keita as he might not be down and out just yet.
Recap & outlook
A lull between promotions saw the price in the general FUT market rise and fall due to Weekend League hype, but looking forward there are plenty of promotions that could shake up the market. Ones to Watch still hold relevance due to hype around their performances, as evident by the TOTW shouts, so make sure you are trying to maximize coins down the stretch. Finally, here’s some quick takes:
-- OTW traders: Winter OTWs could finally be settling, so if you can get in on some open bids, you could make a decent profit flipping overnight.
-- OTW investors: It's getting to a point where you need to be watching your items for any spike in price, because as domestic seasons wind down risk goes up!
We would love to know who has been the best OTW item you’ve used this FIFA? Also, if you can’t get enough market analysis check out our latest Path to Glory update!