With the release of Player of the Month, the market is now completely focused on the Team of the Year. Arguably the most important event of FUT each year, TOTY has prices bending to its will. Over the past week, the market rose ever so slightly (especially during WL buying); however, it is now looking like it is turning down.
Uncertainty about player prices has led many to wait to buy, and with the lack of buying we see a decline in item value. This is more apparent in the Icon market, especially the “cheaper” ones. Another little interesting thing to note is that the special item market has risen a little as many players begin to invest heavily.
Just as players are beginning to invest, a large area of that for FUT players is Ones to Watch items. Players are hoping to see an SBC in February, and that is apparent in the low end items rising tremendously this week. But there’s plenty more to talk about so let's hit it:
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: We always like to highlight players with big difference in their range since it could be the best for investors that want to see potential profit. Players like Serge Aurier, Bertrand Traore and James Rodriguez are great examples of items with a lot of room to grow in value.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Interestingly, elite players like Neymar and Kylian Mbappe have had really low volatility compared to other weeks which could signal they are leveling out in price, while Mohamed Salah and Kyle Walker could be poised for a rebound.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Looking at the best risk/reward potential, the players with high betas that stand out are Alexander Lacazette, Nelson Semedo and Corentin Tolisso. All these players could be primed for huge jumps if they put in quality performances.
TOTW Shout This week saw three players receive HUGE hype for a TOTW spot, yet Federico Bernardeschi, Leonardo Bonucci and Douglas Costa were all snubbed. Poor luck for the Serie A men, but hopefully you sold into the hype.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner - Federico Bernardeschi (Juventus)
This week we saw two players with greater than 100% returns! That’s insane!!! We decided to highlight a player who hasn’t feature before in Bernardeschi, while Bonucci takes a back seat this week (consolation if he makes TOTY).
The ex-Fiorentina star sported a huge volatility (`11,500) and beta (2.28), which of course is due to the enormous hype. For a player that has seen moderate gains and losses for some time it was wonderful to see him pull out of mediocracy. That being said, those figures above show that Berna is a high risk/high reward asset for TOTW inclusion, and now that he got snubbed that price plummeted.
So, looking back we can (re)learn that with players like Bernardeschi it's best to sell into the hype, and we also feel it's important to note that his price experienced an extreme drop that could be good for reinvesting for a OTW SBC.
Big Loser- Ederson Moraes (Manchester City)
This doesn’t happen much. A player who was just a Big Winner is now a Big Loser. Well, Ederson Moraes has done it. The Man City keeper is not here due to him playing poorly or injury, rather because of a price trend we’ve seen all year!
With Ones to Watch over the course of FIFA 18, when a player's item gets upgraded, like Ederson, the following week usually sees big losses. Only Mbappe has broken this curse, but the main message here is to sell into the hype!
As usual, the silver lining here is that Ederson’s price drop leads him to be more affordable; thereby, an easier investment option. He has serious hype, but stay 'wyse' and sell into it.
Recap & outlook
To wrap it up, the overall market is beginning to turn downwards, yet special cards are gaining value due to investors. The OTW market is a great reflection of that as seen by the large returns of the lower end items. It was also a big week in hype for the Calcio A player but, their exclusion from TOTW reinforces the selling into the hype montra. Some interesting final quick takes:
-- OTW traders: It's not the easiest moment to flip OTW items; however, throwing up some open bids and then listing overnight can still work well with patience.
-- OTW investors: The window to invest is getting slimmer. Other FUT players have already begun to buy up items in anticipation of that February SBC.
Let us know some of your thoughts and investments made over the week, and if you want more dynamic player analysis check out our latest Path to Glory update!