As 2017 comes to an end, it seems fitting this past week pretty much embodies how the FUT market has moved all year. Over the past couple of weeks, people have been selling off investments, and that was even more apparent with the release of new Prime Icons yesterday.
After this, people take their new treasure hoards and splurge on Icons and special items. This stabilized prices and has led to a slight rise. That being said, always be weary of the Team of the Year promos on the horizon.
In terms of the Ones to Watch market, it usually follows market conditions; however, this week was a little unique as the low end player held their value as the highest rated items took some hits. The former is largely in part to the Player of the Month requirements, while the latter should be explained by investors having weaker confidence in those players.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Some large low/high ranges for most players this week should trigger one to ask: are these players hitting peaks or trough? For players like Romelu Lukaku, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Bruma that could be especially true.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Volatility can be a trader’s best friend, but you have to time it right. So if you’re more of a risk taker a player like Federico Bernardeschi would be a good look, while the more risk-averse could find comfort in someone like Keita Balde Diao.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: No not the fish, man hope that joke killed it… It seems the highest betas came from the low end items like Franck Yannick Kessie, Bertrand Traore and Theo Hernandez. This reflects their increased inflated price due to POTM, but be cautious when this promo ends.
TOTW Shout On the 20th Kylian Mbappe put in a goal and an assist, while Mohamed Salah has been racking up the assists and a goal over his past two games. Both players were on the outside looking in as other big stars shined brighter.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner -- Leonardo Bonucci (AC Milan)
It was a surprise to see Leonardo Bonucci have a surprising good week considering the train wreck that is AC Milan’s December. Yet, after some reflection we realized that his big price jump could very well be attributed to TOTY hype.
Bonucci was selected to the Best XI squad in early October and if EA follow this as they have historically, the ex-Juventus defender will be primed for a montorous new item -- but his OTW will NOT be upgraded! It is important for people to remember this since that upgrade would be wildly OP and the hype could lead to people losing big. So stay Wyse!
Big Loser -- James Rodriguez (Bayern)
Now, the big winner was lass number based; however, we’ll get into some stats for the Biggest loser, James Rodriguez. Over the past couple of weeks, the ex-Madrid man has seen his price tumble; therefore, its time to spotlight this fall.
Looking at the numbers, like many losers before him James had a high volatility figure (~22,500) and a high negative beta (-0.86). The preceding statistics both serve as measures of risk, and this week that is exactly what Rodriguez was , a risky item. The large fluctuations are also explained by those figures above; however, most of the price swings have been negative so always research accordingly.
As always, a silver lining comes from the fact that he is becoming more affordable. The million coin question is when to buy considering another inform for this man would see some major hype and price jump.
Recap & outlook
To wrap it up, this past week has been a microcosm for FUT market throughout 2017. Lots of hype and investing have established some clear windows where the market falls when people are hoarding, and rises as sell of frees up coins. In terms of OTW it's important to be looking to a prospective SBC in early February. So, some interesting final quick takes:
-- OTW traders: Still preaching about those open bids. Plenty of great deals and list overnight!
-- OTW investors: Whispers of a possible OTW SBC in February are beginning, prices are still a little high, but be vigilant.
If you're looking for so more upgrade madness make sure to check out the Path to Glory update from earlier in the week