Black Friday has come and gone. Personally, I enjoyed most of the Flash SBCs, but was a little bummed they did not offer some sort of discount on pack prices. Alas, let’s focus on the market since this past week has given us a lot to analyze and digest.
For weeks, there has been uncertainty as to how EA would handle the Black Friday promotion, and so in the pre-hype period last week, we saw prices fluctuate different ways. However, during the time of the event, we saw low value and high value player prices react in polar opposite ways. The lower value items (82 and below) saw their prices slashed with increased supply, while most elite players (85+ & special cards) slowly began to rise as pent up buyers began to pull the trigger. So, shifting to the Ones to Watch market, one can see the prices mostly echoed this general market trend.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Looking at the two categories on the graph above, it's important to note that “elite" players, like Neymar and Mbappe are currently at their highs, while the lower-tier players (i.e Kessie and Hernandez) are at their lows. Maybe a shout to invest in the little guys?
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Man, volatility returned with a bang! The broad increase in price fluctuation was a gold mine for traders if they bought and sold at the right times. Related to relative price, the volatility of players stayed consistent to patterns observed in previous weeks; however, some anomalies like Kyle Walker (unusually high) and Romelu Lukaku (unusually low) did arise.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of a card to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: This week’s player betas really reflect how their price shifts were related to the overall market trend. As a whole the market has been rebounding, yet not so much for the lower value players and this is embodied in players like Bruma and Bertrand Traore who sport high negative values (-0.64 & -2.03, respectively).
Sorry to dissapoint, but no real meaningful in-form shouts. Hopefully we'll have better luck next week.
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner -- Kyle Walker (Manchester City)
Not necessarily the highest weekly return; howeve,r Kyle Walker deserves some recognition since his prices jumped sharply after weeks of slight decline. Looking at some of his weekly roundup stats, his stand out week was marked by a large increase in his volatility (~12,300), while the ex-Spurs player spots a high positive beta of 0.82 which lends to his significant price jump as the market rose overall.
Another thing to consider is during Black Friday there were a lot of pent up buyers, so as one of the best right backs in the Premier League he was a hot pickup. This increased demand was definitely in part responsible for Walker’s price spike.
In real life, the English RB gets plenty of playing time for a side that is in tremendous form, both in domestic and European competition. With this form there is some hype around the defender receiving a Team of the Group Stage card, yet he’d be a dark horse at best.
Big Loser -- Bruma (RB Leipzig)
There were quite a few big declines this week, yet it's always nice to be able to focus on a player whose price point makes him relevant to most investors and traders. Recently, it seems investors have been pretty fed up with Bruma’s lack of quality performances even though he gets solid minutes, so the Portuguese winger has ended up in the biggest loser spot.
Looking at some statistics, the -17% weekly return really sticks out, but his medium range volatility (~1500) and high negative beta (-0.64) reflect his poor price performance this period. Taking a step back, it was always a little unreasonable when he was selling for around 45-50k; however, as he nears the 20k mark one should ask is now a good time to invest?
If you’re truly contemplating the preceding question, make sure you take a holistic approach. At 81, he isn’t anything special, but pace and a solid nation isn’t anything to scoff at. Lastly, the Bundesliga winter break is right around the corner and close to a month off will at the very least cause his value to stagnate, or most likely take another hit.
Recap & outlook
To wrap it up, now that Black Friday has come to pass, the hype train can finally die down. To reiterate, the OTW market saw lower value players dip in prices, while the upper tier items have began appreciating in value. These two different reaction were not necessarily surprising, but does offer some interesting final quick takes:
-- OTW traders: Volatility is up, so be looking out for deals. The market has continued to creep up, so look to open bids on numerous players for some great quick flips.
-- OTW investors: If you’re looking to buy the elite players it might be best to get in soon, but stay cautious. On the other hand, the low rated items are hitting some all time lows.Windows tightening on picking up deals and Team of The Group Stage (TOTGS) investments…
Although a major hype horizon is now in the rear view mirror, investors and traders alike should start planning accordingly for the likes of TOTGS, FUTmas and league winter breaks. All the preceding events are poised to have a significant impact on the market, so rest assured look to us to have it covered.