EA delivered on the hype around the Winter Ones to Watch and Ones to Watch Squad Builder Challenges. It was a great week for these dynamic items, and hopefully you got your fill considering it was quite easy to spam the Untradeable versions of those. This OTW promotion also consisted of some supplemental SBCs and pack promos that caused the overall FUT market to dip; however, its been pretty stable and slowly creeping up around Weekend League.
Looking specifically at the OTW market, it was a tale of two trends as the low rated items used for SBC fodder soared, settling around 40k, while elite prices took a hit as their supply increased. We’ll be adding Winter OTW items to the analysis next week, but overall there was plenty to cover in this jammed packed week!
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data that I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the OTW market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Remember, low rated (82 and below) items have been at their highs, while the upper tier players are hovering around their lows. Stay away from the likes of Theo Hernandez and Franck Kessie, but players like Kyle Walker and Corentin Tolisso might be good shouts.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the OTW player’s item.
-- Quick take: Huge week for volatility, but looking forward to a price correction I would be looking at high volatility figures like the PL trio of Romelu Lukaku, Alexandre Lacazette and Ederson as prime bounce back candidates.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of an item to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: Beta can help inform investors of the risk of future price swings, so I would be looking to Douglas Costa as someone with favorable price swing potential. On the other hand, the high figures on Bertrand Traore and Bruma demonstrate they could be in for some serious drops.
Overall, it was a great week of real life football for OTW items. Three items were included in the TOTW, with Mohamed Salah, Michy Batshuayi and Theo Walcott all securing upgrades. Also, it should be noted Gerard Deulofeu put in a convincing performance, and after a week like that it bodes well for the future of the OTW market!
In-depth daily analysis
For your sake and mine, every week I will focus some in-depth analysis on a few OTW items highlighting a big winner(s) & big loser. I have provided a snapshot of their daily returns, but will also be referring to some of the statistics in the Weekly Rundown graph. So, let's begin.
Big Winner - Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
The Weekly Rundown stats are taken form a Wednesday to Tuesday basis, so the huge price jump for Mohamed Salah is not completely apparent, but we felt it needed to be covered. After a huge, rather random, upgrade Salah went from an 86 straight to an 89. This upgrade delivers us an ealy Team of the Season-esque item, and lands Salah as our biggest winner.
After a brace and overall sound performance against Spurs, the Egyptian was on the fringes of the Team of the Week considering the tie was a draw. Because of this, his volatility and beta remain medium, but it helped him avoid a price decline like the other elite OTW players.
Looking to the future, such a major upgrade means his OTW item should not receive a Rating Refresh boost. That is only a small consideration, but definitely worth noting. Regardless, the pacey winger should hold his value going forward, and who knows what the European competition could have in store for us?
Big Loser - Alvaro Morata (Chelsea)
Honestly, a lot more choices for biggest loser than expected this week. We always figured high rated OTWs were going to dip; however, there was a serious decline in prices of these items. After some careful consideration, we decided to drop Morata in the hot seat this week.
The Chelsea striker is in a little bit of a rut at the moment, and a deadline day move for Olivier Giroud places some more pressure on the Spaniard. Over the week, he sported a high volatility figure (~14,500), but pretty normal beta. As usual, that does not give us confidence in him in the future (bar him scoring a goal). If the ex-Juventus star can’t find the net, or string together some solid performances, expect that card to keep declining.
Referring to the previous point, Morata is not alone as players like Alexandre Lacazette and Kyle Walker are in similar situations. But it must be said there is always a silver lining, Morata and other elite players are hovering around all-time lows. So, if you can slot a coupe into your side they could pay off nicely.
Recap & outlook
We got our Winter OTW and OTW SBCs, and man they were glorious. With the hype came the expected inflated prices, and we just hope you already sold your investments. Watch as the 82 and below rated players plummet, while the elites could see a minor positive price correction. It’s important to note that after this week's real life performances it seems some OTW items are primed for big upgrades, so let's hope that continues! Lastly, a couple final quick takes:
-- OTW traders: When the OTW promotion ends panic selling will dominate. So, look to some open bids, or get some sniper filters ready on your favorite items!
-- OTW investors: Prices are still high for most items, but of course there are a couple that might be undervalued. Wait to pick up 82 and below investments, but now might be the time to snag some of those bigger name players.
Let us know how you felt about the Ones to Watch promo below? Also, if you got some free time, take your eyes on over to our Path to Glory Update!