FIFA 18 Path to Glory Investments Update, 09/1

Market Overview

Picking up from last week, it seemed this one began as a calm before the storm for the Ultimate Team market. Early days saw prices stabilize and begin to climb; however, with the massive TOTY announcement and free pack (for those impacted by a brief period during which Prime Icons were not in packs at they should've been) surprise, the market has begun to turn negative.

The increased supply and uncertainty of the two previous events, coupled with pack promos on the horizon, means prices should be faltering for the next few days. So, keep that in mind if you plan to buy your teams!

Focusing on the Path to Glory market, prices followed the market with a brief rise to begin the week. Yet, as the week closed the prices took polar directions for a lot of players. Elite PTG items saw bigger hits as players began liquidating, while the lower value players appreciated as some looked to bolster a few investments.

Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.

Weekly Returns & Stats

The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the PTG market.

Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.

-- Quick take: Pretty tame price ranges between players highs/lows, but it seems Rashford and Coman had the largest differences. Might speak to their hype potential though...

Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the PTG player’s item.

-- Quick take: Just like highs/lows the fluctuation stayed similar relative to their prices. That being said William Carvalho, Asensio and Stephan El Shaarawy could be profitable if you can buy at the right times.

Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of a card to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.

-- Quick take: Unlike the two previous stats, beta had some more extreme figures. Players like Renato Sanches, Lars Stindl and Joe Hart all showed high values which means they could be poised for big gains, but at a higher risk.

TOTW Shout Again a week with no strong Team of the Week contenders. Stay patient with the return of French and German football.

Big Winner- Divock Origi (Wolfsburg)

After weeks of quiet, Divock Origi has benefited from the excitement of the Bundesliga returning. The fact that he already has an inform and gets solid minutes means the Beligan is an attractive item.

A sizable weekly return of 14% means there is definitely value here, but it is important to note that his volatility (~2000) and beta (0.02) were quite low. Now that is interesting because it is a testament to how his rise has been steady rather that soley hype driven.

The risk those two stats convey is low for his card, so look out for the ex-Liverpool man as profit could be here.

Big Loser- Marquinhos (PSG)

Interestingly, it is Marquinhos’s second time as a Big Loser even though he seems a solid PTG option. He gets quality minutes for a team that bosses their league and has extremely practical links to OP players in FUT. So let's discuss why:

A whopping -20.9% percent weekly return cannot be ignored, yet just like Origi, the Brazilian defender had low volatility (~3250) and a mild beta (0.45). It speaks to the steady decline of this item over the past few weeks, but he is still a lower risk option.

Make sure to take note of when the PSG defender begins to steady at the bottom as he is now more affordable and could be a nice value investment

Recap

To wrap it up, the big TOTY announcement and corresponding uncertainty led to lower prices after a week of small returns. It seems some investors are banking on PTG players being needed for SBC requirements at some point. Regardless of that, the return of football for a lot of these players means PTG should be seeing some more news soon.

Let us know your investment thoughts below, and look out for a Ones To Watch update Friday!

Data

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