New year, new me am I right? Nah, we’re still kicking it with the same Ultimate Team market analysis so you can amass your FUT fortune! Looking back briefly, the week leading up to the New Year was not too eventful.
Generally, prices had been experiencing a nosedive the week before, but during this period they began to stabilize and even rise. That being said, the end of the week also brought on Team of the Year rumors which has raised uncertainty causing prices to lean more to the red.
Bearing down on the Path to Glory market, this past week was a nightmare for most cards, especially Gabriel Jesus (significant injuries always have serious price impacts for dynamic items). The weekly stats reflect large declines in prices; however, as we peeled back the layers for this issue there is definitely a silver lining.
Important Note: The data/prices will be taken from Xbox One. However, this year, player prices across both consoles seem more similar than ever. If PS4 players have feedback, please let us know.
Weekly Returns & Stats
The graph above is a concise overview of all the keypoints from the data I collected over the week (data below). Do not fret if some of the terms are unfamiliar as I will do my best to explain what they are, and how they are significant to the PTG market.
Highs/Lows These figures represent the highest and lowest prices of the items over the week. Note that these can come from any price during the week, so always check the price before listing.
-- Quick take: Some big ranges between highs and lows this week mean that certain items like William Carvalho, Dimitri Payet, and Alejandro Gomez could all be great trade tools -- if you can get in at the right time.
Volatility Volatility, measured in terms of coins and a metric of risk, reflects the price fluctuation trends of the PTG player’s item.
-- Quick take: Across the board the fluctuation of players has stayed similar to their respective price; however, some anomalies can be seen in Marco Asensio, Saul and Danny Welbeck. All players that can be seen as higher risk/higher reward items.
Beta Beta, another risk statistic, represents the tendency of a card to respond to swings in the market, and the higher the value the greater the expected price shift.
-- Quick take: PTG players followed their market this week in terms of price shifts, which unfortunately was down. That being said if the market can rebound players like Stephan El Shaarawy, Marcus Rashford and Weekend League terror TiemoueBakayoko could be in line for big returns.
TOTW Shout Nobody really stood out over this past week, but the imminent return Bundesliga and Ligue 1 football should help change this!
Big Winner- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Liverpool)
Well, in a week where only three items would have generated profit Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was a rather easy choice. That being said, it is interesting that a substitute player has been gaining traction so let's check it out.
A high volatility (~3000) and a high beta (1.27) have been stables of big winners, and that is usually due to large positive price shifts. However, both of these measures lend to the fact that a player like Ox can get caught up in hype or panic leading to big swings up or down.
Take note of the previous statement, but another factor of the ex-Arsenal winger’s price rise is that cluster of PL matches in January. The fixture list is packed this month and investors have taken notice since he should see increased playing time. As an English midfield for Liverpool, this man definitely still has value.
Big Loser- Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
As opposed to the winners section, this week featured a ton of negative returns; however, a high profile player like Gabriel Jesus has to be highlighted. The elephant in the room is his serious injury, and that is undoubtedly what caused his huge price decline. But…
For savvy investors this could be an opportunity. A very fixed supply of Jesus items exist on the market, and now that this is the only option for an extremely OP player, more of him will be bought and put in clubs. So, monitor the supply of this card on the market because if you pick one up now he could see a moderate price rise as the supply dwindles.
Make sure to note he will most likely not raise back to 700k or better, but there is some hope.
Although it was a week where most PTG saw large declines, it should be noted that the end of winter breaks for big leagues should stabilize players’ prices. Also, as always in weeks of large decline it leaves items more affordable, and therefore more compelling investment options.
Not saying to go blow all your coins here; however, with EA’s unpredictable SBC requirements and more football to come the PTG players still have value.
Share your PTG thoughts below, and look out for a Ones To Watch update Friday!